How to Cement your Grip on Power


Partyforumseasia: Charles-Maurice de Talleyrand-Périgord (17541838), the French statesman and diplomat, held high positions through the French revolution, the Napoleonic era, and the Vienna Congress. He was famous for his political skills, flexibility, and venality. In a well-known bon mot he is quoted as saying that the farewell from power is the most painful farewell in the world. Two political leaders in Southeast Asia, the Prime Ministers of Cambodia and Malaysia, Hun Sen and Najib Razak, seem to feel like Talleyrand and try to avoid losing the upcoming elections at any price.
Strongman Hun Sen has successfully destroyed the opposition Cambodia National Rescue Party (CNRP) in the last few months. Driving the original leader, Sam Rainsy, into exile, and imprisoning Sam’s deputy and successor, Kem Sokha, was not enough for him. With his CPP-majority in parliament, he had no problem tweaking the party law and had the CNRP dissolved by the constitutional court. More CNRP leaders preferred to escape into self-exile before being detained.
The background and final motif of Prime Minister Hun Sen might be the conviction, based on findings of his intelligence apparatus, that the election coming up in 2018 is not going to be a sure win, and that there is a groundswell against his 32-year authoritarian rule. The local elections in June showed massive gains of the opposition CNRP, and revealed that the ruling party had not even secured the votes of all CPP party members. After getting the opposition out of the way, most of their parliamentary seats have been given to the Norodom Ranariddh Party, which had been wiped out in the 2013 election.
The political cost on the international level might grow in the meantime. Apart from Hun’s  loss of face and the already dented image, the EU is considering sanctions which could hurt Cambodia’s textile imdustry, one of the country’s important cash cows. The Prime Minister seems to count on closer relations and support from the big neighbour China as a handy way of balancing the loss of Western funding, as massive as it was hitherto.

The Malaysian case is similar in the way that Prime Minister Najib Razak is all out to reduce or prevent the challenge of an opposition win in the elections due by August 2018 latest, but possible any time earlier at the discretion of the prime minister. When the unprecedented corruption scandal around Najib, his stepson, and his UMNO party, broke out in 2015, with 682 million US$ found in his private accounts, not many observers beleived in his political survival. But his cold-blooded survival instinct, as well as his absolute control over the country’s finances, since he is finance minister as well, seems to have cemented his grip on power and his unchallenged leadership position in the party.
Dividing or destroying the opposition is a game of Najib which is more sophisticated than the one in Cambodia. The opposition coalition, so far, does not seem united enough to seriously challenge UMNO and its Barisan Nasional coalition. The most charismatic opponent, Anwar Ibrahim, already 70, is still in prison on a controversial conviction for sodomy. Former prime minister Mahathir Mohamad is fighting Najib relentlessly, but at 92, Najib does not take him too seriously any more. Finally, the long-term rival party PAS, an Islamic party with the same vote banks as UMNO among pious and rural Malays, has left the opposition and is now closer to Najib. Vilifying the biggest opposition party, the Chinese dominated DAP, as anti-Malay and anti-Islam, is another promising strategy of the Prime Minister and UMNO president. Obviously, the heavy lopsided gerrymandering which just got the Appeal Court’s green light for further fine tuning, is not seen as a sufficient life insurance. All these manoeuvres, like in Cambodia, betray at least that the leaders have some doubts about their winnability, but, of course, the determination to win at any cost.

Talleyrand, if he could observe this, would understand the two: losing power would be too painful for them and their cronies…

Malaysia: Anwar finally neutralized? Probably Not.


Partyforumseasia has argued since the 2013 election that UMNO and its crony coalition, called Barisan Nasional (BN) or National Front, cannot afford to lose and simply and honestly hand over to the opposition if it should win the next election. Too much money sits in its political and business networks, and the public has long started to believe that the many known corruption scandals are only the tip of an iceberg.
Knowing well that everybody knows that, and that self-cleansing is impossible in such a system, the Pakatan Rakyat opposition coalition, as disparate as it may be, is a deadly challenge for the BN. So the only logical way out is a strategy to destroy the opposition, and first of all its charismatic leader Anwar Ibrahim who seems to be the only one able to hold it together.
MachiavelliWho can help here? Right, good old Niccolò Machiavelli (1469 – 1527) the expert on ruthless politics has enough recipes how to crush an enemy. Here is one suitable quotation:

“If an injury has to be done to a man it should be so severe that his vengeance need not be feared.”

And jailing 67 year-old Anwar for another five years is so severe an injury that his vengeance, at least, cannot be expected in the parliamentary arena. But the question is whether it is severe enough to neutralize him completely.
The sodomy saga about Anwar and the legal procedures around it are so unappetizing that few people outside Malaysia can take is as serious, thus effectively denting the image of the country: “Malaysia is once again in the international doghouse” says the DAP opposition (The Malaysian Insider, Link here)
The history of Anwar’s political destruction since Mahathir fired him in 1998 has already backfired against the UMNO government by the formation of a reform movement and growing strength of the opposition Pakatan Rakyat (PR) coalition as a result.

The new imprisonment may unify the shaky PR coalition and give new energy and hope to many Malaysian voters that Barisan Nasional can be finally defeated. Prime Minister Najib is alraedy under heavy internal pressure in his own party and “Anwar the martyr” may be as dangerous from inside the prison or even more so.

Unity Government in Malaysia: Extended Wayang Kulit?


Najib denies
najib 2Partyforumseasia: Compromising after the bitterness of the GE 13 election last May cannot be easy for opposition leader Anwar nor for PM Najib, the latter even stabbed in the back by UMNO godfather Mahathir. And before a solution has been found it would not be clever to leak details one by one. A power-sharing solution won’t be easy to swallow for party members on both sides but would probably be conducive for the social cohesion of Malaysia. UMNO would be well advised to swallow its pride since it has to change dramatically if it wants to survive. A majority of the voters has given them a clear signal.

Source: Straits Times 17.08.2013