Partyforumseasia: As Partyforumseasia had already assumed, this campaign will be the most expensive ever, and money does not seem to be a problem. When Jesus fed the 5000 it was considered to be a miracle. BN can easily feed 12 times that many with shark’s fin soup and silver pomfret, payed for by rich supporters, “Chinese tycoons” who might have a stake in BN’s grip on power… Source / Link: Straits Times 21 April 2013

Partyforumsseasia: But BN and PR have a couple of problems with their dropped candidate hopefuls after nomination day. Since a certain amount of self-confidence if not narcissism is involved if people run for public office, disappointment is great for the ones who are being dropped without being tested at least by an election within the party. This is the risky side of appointments by the party leadership, and, no surprise, many of these have registered as independent candidates:
Source / Link The Malaysian Insider 21 April 2013

Partyforumseasia:Christmas is less about promises than about gifts on Christmas day. GE 13 may be more about promises and less about real gifts after the election. The taxpayers will have to foot the bill anyway. But frankly: Single mothers as a vote bank for the BN? That is rather unusual in the regional and international comparison. At least it reveals a certain nervousness of PM Najib and his campaign strategists…

Source / Link: The Malaysian Insider, 18 April 2013

Partyforumseasia: If the Election Commission hopes for the best ever election (instead of the dirtiest), it is probably safe to say that it will be the most expensive ever in Malaysia. Everybody who has a vague idea of what is at stake for the incumbent Barisan Nasional (and its cronies) if they should lose it can understand the all out effort in this campaign. French diplomat-politician Talleyrand (1754-1838) once said that the most painful farewell in this world is the farewell from power. But losing power and at the same time being cut off from one’s financial resources must be even worse. Here are some fresh examples of BN’s campaign efforts: 66.600 rallies planned until 5 May and lots of free dinners for potential voters… The opposition is not amused.

 Link: The Malaysian Insider, 13 April 2013

Link: The Malaysian Insider, 13 April 2013

Partyforumseasia: Just three weeks before the parliament would have been dissolved by law, Prime Minister Najib Razak has at last announced the dissolution – with the (expected) blessings of the King. Political Malaysia feels relieved. The elections will probably be scheduled April 20th or 27th.
Why Najib was hesitating so long will remain speculation according to the observer’s preference. For the BN-camp it will be caution and extended preparation for a victory, for the PR-camp a sign of weakness. In any case it is noteworthy that the BN government has already showered the country with several cash schemes, whereas the opposition PR could only make promises.
See today’s report of The Malaysian Insider

Partyforumseasia: Limiting the number of competing parties for the 2014 elections does not seem easy for the the General Elections Commission (KPU). It announced yesterday (25 March 2013) that Golkar splinter PKPI is eligible as no.15:

Partyforumseasia:
With God’s Help?
In Homer’s Iliad the Olympic gods interfere directly in the battles for Troy. The crusaders were motivated by the Pope’s affirmation that they were fighting for God, and their Muslim adversaries were also convinced that they were dying for Allah. Religion as a political tool has often been successful, not least in Europe  for the Christian Democratic Parties. So it does not come as a surprise that in the running- up to the elections in Malaysia both camps are trying to get religious support, if not directly from Allah, then at least by using the status and credibility of Muslim leaders. Since UMNO feels that they have their most faithful voter bank among rural and pious Malays, but face the competition of the Islamist PAS, their efforts to get support from prominent Ulama is logical. But opposition leader Anwar Ibrahim has his own religious credentials, he started his political career as head of the Muslim Youth Movement ABIM. The following article gives some details how the parties a trying to recruit religious leaders for the election campaign:

Source and link: Straits Times 21.3.2013, p. A26

Partyforumseasia: The results of the Italian elections three weeks ago were followed by rather sarcastic comments about the “clowns” (Economist et al.) who were successful against the normal odds. One of the surprise winners with a quarter of the votes was comedian Beppe Grillo, the other with a surprise comeback Silvio Berlusconi. The mature democracies in Europe with such results? Many politicians could hardly believe it, but in reality it highlights  the frustration of most of the voters with the disappointing performance of the “serious” type of lawmakers.Can Southeast Asia compete? President Joseph Estrada in the Philippines is not forgotten, but we have a new example in Indonesia. Columnist Julia Suryakusuma in the (link:) Jakarta Post today comments on
“The awesome power of sausage politics” :
Julia Suryakusuma, Jakarta | Opinion | Wed, March 20 2013, 11:31 AM
Paper Edition | Page: 7
It’s hard to take a public servant seriously when you see him waving a sausage in the air and singing “It’s so nice”, with a motley crowd of backup singers sashaying behind him.

Yet that’s precisely how Deddy “Demiz” Mizwar recently became deputy governor of West Java — and his awesome sausage-waving skills helped secure winning votes for his running mate, incumbent Governor Ahmad “Aher” Heryawan as well. Yes, that’s right, Aher, worried that his own popularity would not be enough, decided to “buy” sausage-star Deddy to shore up his reelection bid.

In fact, Deddy has a solid reputation as an award-winning actor and film director, but that’s not what made him a familiar face nationally. Nope, he became a star by constant appearances in TV ads for a mobile phone network operator, bottled mineral water, motorbikes, toothpaste, heartburn medicines and others — including, naturally, the oh-so-nice sausages.

Of course, most of these products could be linked to politics in one way or another (especially mobile phones and heartburn!) but sausages are the closest connection. Think about it. Sausage-making is smelly and made up of unhealthy, disgusting and even dangerous ingredients, including preservatives and the dreaded “pink slime” (blood, fat and bits of meat trimmings disinfected with ammonia, all colored with dye — and not always food dye). Same with politics! It’s also too often made up of unsavory ingredients, including, of course, ambitions, egos, greed, corruption, manipulation and outright lies.

Ah well, perhaps Deddy’s career in advertising has prepared him well for the horrors hidden within. Just look at the sausage ad he did for Ramadhan in 2011 and 2012. Wearing Indonesian Muslim garb, Deddy exhorted viewers to gobble sausages for sahur (the early morning meal before commencing fasting), and again sausages first thing for iftar (breaking the fast). Get real? Touting this junk-filled product as healthy? In the fasting month to boot? Well, that’s advertising for you — and that’s politics too.

Besides riding on the back of Deddy’s sausage-stardom, Aher’s win was also allegedly the result of pork barrel politics (not to be confused with the recent pork-tainted meatball scare). In January 2013 — just before the elections! — Aher’s West Java provincial government allocated “grants” and “social funds” of Rp 100 million (US$10,303) per village for 5,304 villages in West Java, Rp 50 million for 2,000 agricultural extension workers, and Rp 90 million for 400 private universities. Big buck handouts and a big banger TV star! What’s not to like? No wonder he won.

Politicians like Aher, who are in “low-batt” mode (i.e. low popularity) don’t usually resort to the sausage for salvation. Instead most simply go to their political party for a “recharge”. Political parties often act as a power-bank — you know, those portable chargers you carry around so your smartphone doesn’t run out of power — for candidates. The trouble is that Aher, who hails from the Prosperous Justice Party (PKS), doesn’t seem to want to advertise the fact that he’s a PKS man too much.

You see, in recent years, his party has become pretty low-batt itself. Initially touted as clean and free of corruption and sex scandals, it has since had its fair share of both, and is in no position to help anyone anymore. The most recent uproar involves Luthfi Hasan Ishaaq, former PKS president, now embroiled in the imported beef scandal, and an alleged sex scandal involving a 19-year-old student, (“Agriculture minister faces further grilling over beef”, The Jakarta Post, March 15). At least the beef makes a change from sausages.
But let’s face it, all Indonesian political parties are in serious low-batt mode at the moment. In fact, Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono’s (SBY) Democratic Party (PD) seems to have completely short-circuited. With Anas Urbaningrum, the former chairman, finally forced to resign after being declared a suspect by the Corruption Eradication Commission (KPK), it looks like not even sausages could save the party now. The way things are going, lame-duck SBY will soon be able to hold the PD’s annual general meeting in the bathroom, all on his lonesome.
So, who’s winning from this situation? The business cronies are, because our low-batt politicians are increasingly desperate for campaign funds as elections daily creep closer. This means they are also vulnerable to cronies pressuring them for policies that will benefit their businesses. That is maybe why recently economic policy has suddenly swung protectionist, and with trade barriers soaring, imports have fallen. Slowly but surely, technocrats are being marginalized and the free-trade reforms of the last decade seem to be unraveling fast.
The Coordinating Economic Minister, Hatta Rajasa, in-law of SBY and presidential candidate from National Mandate Party (PAN), has been pushing protectionism. He claims it will strengthen domestic businesses, deliver food self-sufficiency and give added value to raw materials. But, in fact, the main results are a general increase in food prices, including basic commodities — most notably the recent spiraling price of onions and garlic — and now serious food shortages as well. Could it possibly be because his policies are motivated not by economics but political interest? In the end, the push for power is pushing policy aside.
At least the scarcity of garlic is good news for vampires. They can roam freely now. But what to do with the political vampires whose blood-sucking ways don’t depend on the absence of garlic, and who operate in broad daylight?
Perhaps we should force-feed them all smelly sausages till they burst?



 The writer (www.juliasuryakusuma.com) is the author of Jihad Julia

Partyforumseasia: Aung San Suu Kyi at the crossroads?
At a time when the road to Myanmar’s presidency seems to open up for the opposition leader and translate the long years of martyrdom into political success and leadership at last, the first questions about the price to pay appear as well.

Link: Straits Times 16.3.2013

Partyforumseasia: The price Aung San Suu Kyi has to pay is linked to the change of role. Suffering under the suppression of the democracy movement at the hands of the ruling military junta propelled her to international attention as “democracy icon” and martyr, culminating with the Nobel Peace Prize in 1991. Her courage and perseverance will continue to be admired.But taking over now a leadership role in the complex melee of Myanmar’s transition period will mean that she leaves her pedestal of democracy icon and cannot avoid stepping into the quagmire of practical involvement in day-to-day politics.
The first criticisms are coming up: Her re-election in the NLD party congress last week was unanimous of course, but reflected as well the party’s dependence on her. The 15 members of the executive committee were just nominated by “the lady” and then confirmed. And for the taste of the “younger blood” she had asked for, too many old loyalists, called the “NLD-uncles” were elected. Further criticism and disappointment comes up for her lack of addressing the smoldering Rohingya problem and other minority grievances, where she does not seem to have a better solution than the government. Finally, accepting donations from cronies of the former military regime for the party and her role in a controversial environmental case have started to dent her reputation.

See also: Soft on Sein (Foreign Affairs, 8.3.2013)
“The master stroke (of president Thein Sein) was the release of Suu Kyi. Over the last year, her global tour has made her a one-woman public-relations campaign for the regime and its carefully controlled reform process. She has rarely criticized the government’s treatment of minorities, even after hundreds of Rohingya Muslims, who are denied citizenship, have been killed in racist pogroms in the southwest of the country beginning last summer.”

                                                           Partyforumseasia: The Roman Empire knew how to rule over not fully convinced people, at least for long periods. The realistic slogan “oderint dum metuant” (they may hate us as long as they fear us) expresses their approach to strong government.

In the case of Vietnam’s Communist Party fear is still an important pillar of their one-party rule… and an obstacle to change. Khanh Vu Duc, an overseas Vietnamese, describes the probability of change in an article published by  Asia Times Online on 6 Mar 13:
“Because Vietnam does not elect its leaders, the government’s power rests in the people’s respect for its authority. As long as the people continue to abide by the government’s established order, nothing will change.”
See the full article at Asia Times Online

Open question are:
1. Is there less fear in the younger generation?
2. How are fear and respect related?
3. Can authoritarian governments get more respect with less fear?

Partyforumseasia: For many Southeast Asians it may sound familiar when Prime Minister Hun Sen threatens the Cambodian voters with stopping infrastructure programs like bridge building if they should not vote for his CPP. Is he the next Prime Minister who has doubts about his re-election? At least some concern seems to haunt him if he thinks that such a threat is necessary…

See: “No CPP, no development: Hun Sen” (The Phnom Penh Post, 6 March 2013)

Partyforumseasia: Some strategists from more party-politically volatile countries may have envied the “stability” of UMNO’s Malaysia and the number of “safe deposit” constituencies for so many years. The last general election in 2008 came with a brutal wake-up call for all those who have believed that power and access to assets would continue forever. Populist but not necessarily popular campaign goodies and the ferocious use of the pro-establishment media signal that BN, for the first time in decades, has doubts about winning the next election.
Dr. Ooi Kee Beng, deputy director of the Institute of Southeast Asian Studies (ISEAS)  in Singapore, comments on what has changed already before the next election coming up in April:

Straits Times, 22.3.2013

Partyforumseasia: The elections approaching, the BN governments’ coffers are already wide open. From cash payouts for citizens to rosy future promises, the ruling coalition seemed hard to beat. But mind you, the opposition coalition Pakatan Rakyat is not shy of promises either. The just published election manifesto has good news for every Malaysian as well. And from a strategic point of view this move is logical and correct. If the competitor promises more cash you can’t preach austerity, even if the financial forecast would urge you to be cautious…

Source: Straits Times, Singapore, 26.2.2013

Partyforumseasia: The Southeast Asia Forum at Stanford University is planning a seminar on the erosion of authoritarian traditions in both countries. Will distance diagnosis be relevant for the political parties here?
Link: Stanford University

Source: Straits Times, Singapore, 10.2.2013

Partyforumseasia:
Pre-Election Campaigning already in full swing, the competing parties are not shy to frighten the voters. The threats of Christianisation or Islamisation of Malaysia may neutralise each other. PM Najib urging the opposition to accept their defeat even before the elections might backfire on election day if the loser should turn out to be the Barisan Nasional coalition…
Anyway, the large opposition rallies in the past months seem to suggest that it is more and more difficult to frighten the Malaysian voters.
And the ‘Arab Spring’ or ‘Tahrir’ comparison look a bit too far- fetched… fortunately.

Source: Straits Times, Singapore, 10.2.2013

Partyforumseasia:
With shrinking poll results, President
SBY is pulling the emergency brake.
In a move widely seen as authoritarian,
he sidelines DP chairman Anas Urban- ingrum who is threatened by corruption investigation.
How this move will be accepted by the electorate, sensitized during the Indonesian democratization process, remains to be seen. Necessary as it is to take Anas out of the limelight, the procedure may look too authoritarian for many voters.

Slater, Dan, Strong-State Democratization in Malaysia and Singapore, in: Journal of Democracy, Vol.23, No 2, April 2012, pp.19-33

Partyforumseasia: Starting with some “political archaeology” to describe the formation of strong states with a well- functioning bureaucracy and fiscal capacity, Slater compares the two countries with the Democratisation in Korea and Taiwan. There, he argues, the authoritarian strong-state tradition has helped to maintain political stability through the democratisation and beyond.
Saying that “The iron cages of authoritarian Leviathans (…) have by no means been dismantled” may sound somewhat far-fetched when applied to Malaysia and Singapore of today. And taking the bureaucracy of the two countries as equals raises doubts as well.
Slater describes the Korean and Taiwanese developments as middle-class voters turning conservative and abandoning their support for reform and democratisation “in the face of real or perceived threats to economic and political stability.” And he predicts similar patterns in Singapore and Malaysia, “accompanied by the same sort of party-system continuity, electoral conservatism, and persistent state capacity.”
Slater is right in highlighting for both countries the huge gap between exceptionally strong states and exceptionally weak oppositions. But it seems rather questionable when he continues that UMNO and PAP could stem the tide of opposition gains by upholding their old ways of coercive tactics. Neither UMNO nor the PAP would look so concerned about recent election wins of the opposition if they were sure that coercion still works as it did in the old days.
As much as the Pakatan Rakyat opposition coalition, though unstable in itself, may win the upcoming elections to be held by June 2013 and take over the federal government in Malaysia, this remains a pipe dream in Singapore. The Workers’ Party as strongest among a number of small and splinter parties even seems to be a bit insecure with its own success and declared after a by-election win in January how loyal an opposition it will be and that it is by no means prepared to take over the national government. Preventing exaggerated expectations is fine, but Slater’s assessment at the end sounds somewhat overdone, that Singapore’s opposition “…is extreme in only one respect – its pronounced moderation.”
Comparing East Asian with Southeast Asian developments certainly has its shortcomings. But Slater’s central point is interesting, that the state structures in Malaysia and Singapore (calling them Leviathans may be exaggerated) are strong enough to allow more political liberalisation and even a smooth change of government. The latter is not on the cards in Singapore and may not be so smooth in Malaysia.
Loosening up traditional repressive controls, Slater concludes, would not only be good for democracy, but also good for UMNO and the PAP themselves. While the PAP leadership still looks relatively relaxed, though alarmed, the Malaysian ruling coalition is obviously much more nervous before the upcoming elections. According to Talleyrand the farewell from power – and its spoils – is the most painful farewell in this world.

Partyforumseasia: The democratic era in Indonesia has seen quite a number of changes to party and election laws… and quite a number of creative adaptations to them by the political parties. Advertising in newspapers to recruit more candidates may be a rather unique exercise, though, probably a first world wide.

Straits Times, Singapore, is taking that up on 29 January 2013. Here is the link:

The article is quoting Yunarto Wijaya from Charta Politika in Jakarta on the ‘cash for candidacy problem’: “This is why we have this term ‘dowry’ where candidates pass money to party officials to ensure their names are on the list.”
Growing – and 4-fold is really ambitious – with the help of self-funding candidates may be a strategy many parties did not dare to dream of so far.

2. Reducing the number of parties: A danger for the diversity of Indonesia?

Partyforumseasia:   Conventional political science wisdom is rather unanimous that too many competing parties are more of a nuisance than a blessing to any party system. Consequently, Indonesia has been commended for the effort to keep a lid on the mushrooming party scene in the earlier part of the democratic era (Benjamin Reilly and others). But the question is, whether what is good for “normal” countries can be applied to the huge archipelago state of Indonesia and its regional diversity.

In an article for the Link: Straits Times of Singapore (22.1.2013), John Mcbeth looks into the negative side effects of the new move by the the General Election Commission (KPU)’s screening process for the 2014 election:
“Only 10 parties passed the General Election Commission (KPU) verification, in a screening process that has seen the overall field drop from the 48 parties which took part in the first democratic elections in 1999 to 24 in 2004, and then back to 38 in 2009. (…) Among the victims of the KPU paring knife were the Crescent Star Party (PBB), which had contested all three past elections, and the United National Party, founded by the leaders of 12 minor parties who failed to win representation in 2009.
Quite apart from denying the country’s 187 million potential voters a wider choice, the onerous qualification obstacles the big parties embedded in last year’s amendment to the 2008 electoral law will also make the electorate more Java-centric than ever. The PBB, for example, failed to win a seat in 2009. But most of its 1.8 million supporters were concentrated along Sumatra’s central spine and in West Nusa Tenggara – not on populous Java.”
The criteria of the electoral law, amended in April 2008, are certainly not easy to meet by small and new parties unless they have access to very comfortable funds:
– The minimum threshold to enter parliament has been increased to 3.5% – still low in the international comparison
– A regional chapter in all 34 provinces
– Branches in 75 per cent of the 398 districts and 98 municipalities, and in 50 per cent of about 5,400 sub-districts.

See the following contribution also on page Party Theory:
Benjamin Reilly on January 25, 2013 at 9:33 am said: Edit

Partyforumseasia: The floor is open…
Please send your suggestions to:
webmaster@political-party-forum-southeast-asia.org

Click on the article excerpt to enlarge
Source: Straits Times, 19 Jan 2013

Partyforumseasia: It is certainly more than difficult to organize rival opposition parties to field a common candidate against a strong ruling party. The SDP’s proposal to the stronger Workers’ Party not to field their own candidate and support the SDP’s looks rather overoptimistic, especially in view of the latter’s strong self-confidence after the GRC success in 2011. A strategic mistake of the SDP??? The debate is open…

Link: Straits Times 8 Jan 2013

Partyforumseasia: A step towards cleaner and more transparent party politics? An end to an all too visible business approach in Indonesia’s party politics? This is certainly a good move, which may put pressure on the other parties if the voters show their appreciation and vote for PKS.

Link: Straits Times, 8 Jan 2013

Partyforumseasia: Many young democracies try to control the number of political parties without making the formation of new ones too prohibitive. Indonesia has been quite successful so far by changes to the electoral law (see Benjamin Reilly’s research on political engineering in our bibliography). The move of the General Elections Commission (KPU) is the next step, which, of course, is being criticized by the small parties which lose their chance to get at least a few seats, and maybe some business opportunities… It remains to be seen whether they find a creative way out.

Link: Straits Times, 7 Jan 2013

Partyforumseasia:
Coalitions between more or less comparably strong partners can be more than difficult. In the best case they are marriages of convenience, hardly or never a love affair, but more often than not a marriage dispute and not a honeymoon, in the case of Pakatan Rakyat hardly a harmonious ménage a trois. With the overbearing dominance of UMNO in the Barisan Nasional coalition, where smaller parties look more like piggy riding, the semblance of harmony seems to be easier to project. And the discord within Pakatan certainly gives hope to the Barisan for the upcoming elections.

Partyforumseasia: Can a six-cornered fight be a winning strategy for any opposition party?
http://epaper.straitstimes.com/fvx/fvxp/fvxpress.php?param=2012-12-28